"We've talked about this condition. There is a potential increase in rainfall this weekend," said the head of the sub-field of Extreme Weather BMKG, Steady Rubidianto, Thursday, January 24, 2013.
In addition to rainfall, concerns also caused rising sea level on the northern coast of Jakarta. The condition is influenced by the position of the moon on the earth. Currently, seawater in northern Jakarta has risen to a height of about 1 meter.
"The water tide has occurred on 23 January, is expected to take place until January 27," said Massy. Overflow of seawater is likely impede rainwater disposal.
Strong urged people living in coastal areas should increase alertness. "Increase alertness, will coast flooded. Generally light rain and moderate and tended to increase during the night and early morning," he said.
Governor of Jakarta, Joko Widodo, making preparations in anticipation of the worst. He claimed to have been coordinated with the Ministry of Public Works to address the prediction of flooding on 27 January. "Preparations of the worst-case scenario, it should be anticipated," said Jokowi.
He urged the public to be more vigilant and careful to deal with all the worst of the flood. "But it may not happen. We had a meeting with the PU, which is related to the water's Ministry of Public Works," said Jokowi.
How big
Despite the heavy rain predicted to fall, Massy would not predict a big flood like last Thursday. Therefore, rain is expected to fall by pouring on the date predicted unequal.
Areas of heavy rain are expected to include the northern region of Depok and Jakarta. "Meanwhile, other areas in Greater Jakarta predicted to be light to moderate rain on that date," said Massy.
Besides, he added, the rain on January 27, it also does not necessarily lead to severe flooding as before. "Actually we did not flood prediction. However, for areas that have been flooded should still be vigilant, especially in the northern region of Jakarta was rob (tidal)," he said.
"Is it going to cause massive flooding like last Thursday, may not get that bad, unless there is a broken levee."
Meanwhile, Head of Data, Information and Public Relations of the National Agency for Disaster Management (BNPB), Sutopo Purwo Nugroho, said flooding is unlikely Jakarta on 27 January. According to him, on January 27, there will indeed be coming tide started at 05.00 pm and reach the summit at 8:00 to 10:00 pm. "As high as 1 meter from the normal," he said.
But, he added, it's not the height of the maximum tide. Attach a maximum of 24 to 25 January took place in the past with a height of 1.1 meters. "On January 26 to 28 ranged from 1 meter," explained the man who is also a professor of hydrology Agency for the Assessment and Application of Technology (BPPT) is.
In addition, there is no tropical cyclone in southern Indonesia. "Index surges cold (cold seruak) in Hong Kong was also not detected. If there is, then there will be propagation of cold surges into the area south of the equator that occurs after 4-6 days. Then Java will experience very heavy rainfall," said Sutopo.
Similarly, the Madden Julian Oscillation index (MJO) is negative. Sutopo explained that the MJO is a 40-50 day oscillation berperiode, which in some cases could be widened to 30-60 days. "Convective cloud clusters produced in the Indian Ocean (west of Indonesia) and then moves eastward along the equator to take a turn cycle with a period of 40-50 days."
With three climate factors, Sutopo rate, tiny chance extreme rainfall occurred in Jakarta and surrounding areas as well as rainfall in 2007 caused severe flooding in Jakarta.
Sky Engineering
However, the government still did the anticipation of possible flooding as predicted it. Agency for the Assessment and Application of Technology (BPPT) and the number of institutions will implement Weather Modification Technologies (TMC) or "engineering the sky" to reduce the high rainfall predicted would happen in Jakarta.
Weather engineering started on Saturday to weather conditions at Capital sunny skies. The aim is to reduce the risk of flooding in the capital. "We will condition the cloud will go as well as those located in Jakarta," said Head of the Assessment and Application of Technology Making Rain BPPT, Tri Handoko Seto, to VIVAnews.
According to him, the clouds will go to capital region will be accelerated to rain. The cloud from the outside that led to Jakarta will be sown seedling material (a substance that can turn into rain clouds). "We sprinkle of seedling materials Herciles military aircraft, so the cloud is fast becoming the rain and did not occur in the Greater Jakarta area," he said. In addition, this method can also be used Ground Base Generator (GBG).
Meanwhile, clouds are growing on the Jakarta area will also be engineered. Cloud over Capital will be made so as not to rain. "We sprinkle fine particles that could make the clouds glow above the wind away from Jakarta," he said.
Tri Handoko said, these methods have been tested in a number of countries and successfully. Meanwhile, in Indonesia, a similar engineering ever undertaken in Palembang, South Sumatra, at the SEA Games performances. "Experience in Jakabaring, because its scope is small, can reduce about 80% of rainfall. Jakarta but for a broader, our target is only 30%, more gratitude that," he said.
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